Bush’s Decline

More polls showing Bush’s continuing decline, though neither the CBS-New York Times poll (63%) nor the Washington Post poll (69%) has a number as low as Pew’s 60%.

I wonder how many respondents think it’s their patriotic duty to say they support the President? That wouldn’t, after all, be unreasonable. If the Bush team can convince the Iraqi military that the only choice they have is between getting rid of their own dictator or facing the U.S. military meatgrinder, we might be able to bluff him out of power, which would be a terrific result. The more support it looks as if Bush has for fighting, the more plausible such an outcome becomes.

Meanwhile, the University of Iowa’s elections “market” gives the Democrats a 45% chance of taking back the House, and the Republicans only a 20% chance of taking back the Senate. At those odds, I’d tend to bet Republican; my understanding is that taking the House back would require the Democrats to win about three-quarters of the races actually in play, which is a tough trick to pull off unless there’s a real national trend, and the Senate is such a small-numbers problem that it’s hard to see how any outcome could really be 80% likely.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com