Obama should crack 50%, twenty points up on HRC, Edwards trailing badly. And Obama gets almost a quarter of the white vote, much better than I had feared.
If the early exit polls are accurate, Obama didn’t just win in SC; he won big.
More than half of the voters were black, and Obama got about 80% of them (with no significant gender split). The rest went to Clinton, with Edwards getting skunked. And it was only her share of the black vote that kept Hillary from finishing third.
Among whites, it was Edwards 39%, Clinton 36%, Obama a very respectable 24%, which is twice the level he had in some of the late polling. The white vote was split along gender lines, with Clinton getting women and Edwards men.
But if we add the numbers up assuming conservatively that blacks were only half the voters, that should give Obama about 51%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 18%.
That’s IF the exits got it right. But right now, it looks pretty sweet.
Update Bigger than that, it seems. About a 25-point stompin’.
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Books:
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
UCLA Homepage
Curriculum Vitae
Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com
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