The Intrade contract on having a bill through Congress by midnight Tuesday was trading at 65% at 5pm Eastern. It’s now under 20%.
The InTrade price on getting a bailout bill passed (not signed) by Tuesday just cratered. It was 65% at 5 pm Eastern, now under 20%. I hope that just means someone’s figured out they can’t get it to the President’s desk until Wednesday, rather than that McCain has told Boehner to really screw it up.
Update Apparently this is just Reid saying the Senate can’t pass the bill until Wednesday. I’m still nervous.
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman