Really. Un-panic. Rasmussen’s robots have Kerry even with Bush.
Rasmussen’s three-day moving average now has Kerry tied with Bush at 47.3%. Tomorrow’s number, which won’t include Saturday’s polling which showed Kerry ahead (and which Scott Rasmussen therefore thinks was probably a bad sample) might not be as good for Kerry, but the conventional wisdom that the Republicans had a successful convention and that the election is now Bush’s to lose looks harder and harder to believe.
Zogby shows some gains for Bush in the battleground states, but he still shows Kerry getting 307 EV, which means that he could win even if both Florida and Missouri, now leaning Kerry, went for Bush instead. (Correction: A reader points out that Florida now has 27 EV, which with Missouri’s 11 would produce a tie and force the election into the House.)
Author: Mark Kleiman
Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out.
Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken)
When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist
Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993)
Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989)
View all posts by Mark Kleiman