UpdateÂ Gallup comes in with Thurs-Sun poll: Romney 49 – Obama 48 among LVs; Obama 49 Romney 46 among RVs; Obama job approval now 52-45. The last pre-Sandy poll had Romney up by 5, which made Gallup an outlier. Maybe these numbers were goosed just a little to help Gallup climb down from that limb, or maybe this reflects real movement toward Obama since the storm, consistent with other polling. This won’t stop Republican fantasists from dreaming of a “hidden wave” election, but it removes the last bit of evidence of a Romney lead.
Obama back up to +4.5 in the RAND panel, now 50%-45.5%, after factoring in a 5-point intensity gap.
Obama winning Latinos by 50 points, a much bigger margin than he had four years ago and a somewhat bigger margin than shown in most of the big national polls. For example, Pew has Obama 50-47 overall, 66-27 among Latinos, who make up 7% of the sample. The difference between a 50-point spread and a 39-point spread, applied to 7% of the population, would increase Obama’s overall margin by eight-tenths of a percentage point. If that’s typical, then the 2.1% popular-vote margin now projected by Nate Silver should be nearly 3%.
*Unless Gallup decides to post again.