Final entrail-reading*

Update Gallup comes in with Thurs-Sun poll: Romney 49 – Obama 48 among LVs; Obama 49 Romney 46 among RVs; Obama job approval now 52-45. The last pre-Sandy poll had Romney up by 5, which made Gallup an outlier. Maybe these numbers were goosed just a little to help Gallup climb down from that limb, or maybe this reflects real movement toward Obama since the storm, consistent with other polling. This won’t stop Republican fantasists from dreaming of a “hidden wave” election, but it removes the last bit of evidence of a Romney lead.

Obama back up to +4.5 in the RAND panel, now 50%-45.5%, after factoring in a 5-point intensity gap.

Obama winning Latinos by 50 points, a much bigger margin than he had four years ago and a somewhat bigger margin than shown in most of the big national polls. For example, Pew has Obama 50-47 overall, 66-27 among Latinos, who make up 7% of the sample. The difference between a 50-point spread and a 39-point spread, applied to 7% of the population, would increase Obama’s overall margin by eight-tenths of a percentage point. If that’s typical, then the 2.1% popular-vote margin now projected by Nate Silver should be nearly 3%.

*Unless Gallup decides to post again.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

7 thoughts on “Final entrail-reading*”

  1. Great news. But–I follow far too many polling sites, but am at a loss as to what “nati-45” means. Enlighten us?

  2. Great news. However–though I follow far too many polling sites, I am at a loss as to what “nati-45” means. Enlighten us?

  3. Why Romney Might Boost Growth More Than Obama
    By Matthew Yglesias | Posted Monday, Nov. 5, 2012, at 11:07 AM ET

    Not a word in this post from Matt Yglesias — whom Mark has adored — about what other harms, other than reversing Roe v. Wade, a Romney-packed Supreme Court might do. Not a word about the horrible lies Romney has told in an attempt to seize power undemocratically. Not a word about the efforts of Mitt’s Republican party to disenfranchise millions of American voters.

    Americans have fought and died to protect our democracy, Matt. But hardly a peep from you about Romney’s horribly mendacious lies.

    Perhaps it’s because Matt is young, but for whatever reason, he can’t seem to see the dangerous man lurking behind the not-very-subtle mask Romney puts up. Matt says he’ll vote Obama, but at this point I’m not sure I believe him.

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/05/which_candidate_is_better_for_short_term_growth_probably_mitt_romney.html#article_comment_box

    1. Matt was definitely “young” when he started blogging at age 21 ten years ago. But how long do you get to be “young”? He’s a 31 year-old married man and homeowner now.

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