There’s been recent speculation that 2012 will be a double or even “triple-flip” election. In this scenario control of the Presidency, the House, and the Senate would all (or two out of three) change party hands in opposite directions, giving us President Romney and Speaker Pelosi (and maybe Senate Majority Leader McConnell). The scenario presupposes an anti-incumbent election in which disgust with government and the economy is so acute that voters throw the bums out indiscriminately.
Alan Abramowitz, demolishing the idea, uses almost exactly two thousand words. But in confirmation of the clichÃ©, I’m happy to ignore the words and simply reproduce instead his two perfect scatterplots (data sources left out of the graphics below, but in original).
For the House, here are Democratic and Republican incumbent losses, by year:
And for the Senate:
We are done here. Time to move on.