Why was Terry McAuliffe the only candidate in the Virginia Governor’s race whose support was well-predicted by polls?
Archive for the ‘Polling’ Category
Pools tend to overstate the support of third party candidates like Robert Sarvis of Virginia
Political prognosticators tend to think of “the” senior vote as less diverse than it really is
Sometimes a single poll diverges from the pack of results generated by everyone else. How can you tell when the pollster is doing a better job of picking up a new trend versus simply being wrong? Peter Kellner offers an educative account of how these events occur, using as an example a poll that shows […]
A survey on American attitudes to climate change consistently gives self-contradictory results.
In repeatedly talking about “nation building here at home,” Obama tapped into the one feeling ardently held by American voters that is unmentionable in polite company: moderate isolationism.
Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson’s website boasts that the third-party candidate is “polling nationally from 2.4% to 9% and various states have him polling up to 15%”. Like polls of the support of countless minor political candidates in the past, these numbers are almost certainly wrong, for an intriguing statistical reason. Imagine a poll about a […]
How often in your life have you heard a political commentator say something like “Well 50% of Americans may disapprove of the job the President is doing, but he is still better off than Members of Congress, of whom 70% of Americans disapprove”? Countless op-eds, essays and news stories travel the same lines. Typically, they […]
The polling for Tuesday looks grim, and it’s probably right. But it might be wrong. So brace yourself for a bad night, but don’t despair.