For once, Donald Trump cited an actual source better than a Breitbart rumour for his claim that Obama’s Paris commitment would cost a fortune:
Compliance with the terms of the Paris accord and the onerous energy restrictions it has placed on the United States could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025, according to the National Economic Research Associates. This includes 440,000 fewer manufacturing jobs — not what we need — believe me, this is not what we need — including automobile jobs, and the further decimation of vital American industries on which countless communities rely.
NERA is biased conservative but professional. Their study has 149 pages and authors with PhDs. Good stuff? No.
They get their energy assumptions from the hapless EIA forecasters, specifically their Annual Energy Outlook reference case (AEO). So without the CPP and other evil green policies, this is how they see the US emissions map:Look at the coal line. Compare the recent history of electric generation by source.
Does that look like steady growth in coal to you, or a death spiral that started a decade ago? It will certainly continue. Another 14 GW of coal plants have been identified by the EIA itself as scheduled for closure by their owners. (Next to none are planned for addition.) At 6mt CO2 per GW per year, that makes a reduction of 84mt CO2 a year, over half the current burn. Methodology here. The assumed capacity factor of 80% is too high for doomed plants, but on the other hand the list is certainly a gross underestimate of the likely closures – the economics for old coal plants are terrible everywhere. The two scenarios, of coal emissions rising by 8% by 2040 or falling by 46%, are quite incompatible. The scenario of growth in coal is a propagandist fantasy.
Are the other components any more credible? Continue Reading…