Just some pics.
10pm: We are back at the top of the hour. Democrats are doing well in the House, though it’s not a wave. Florida and Georgia are especially disappointing. It looks like the nation is getting strong turnout from those who strongly dislike President Trump, but also from those who strongly favor him.
Some heartening developments, too. Jared Polis was elected the first openly gay governor in Colorado. Sharice Davids is also a gratifying victory. Laura Kelly is a great win in Kansas, defeating Kris Kobach.
Democrats estimated to have 80-90% probability of taking House, with an estimated 225 or 226 seats.
Republicans will win close Senate races in Texas,
Arizona, Florida. Very frustrating. Re-enfranchisement bill in Florida will make a difference. Note: Arizona still too close to call, with slight Democratic edge.
House now has 95% probability of Democratic majority. The night looks a little less dour with strong Democratic House victories. Nice governor pickups, too. Especially Walker and Kobach. Michigan, too.
Steve King is losing in Iowa. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
And as disappointing as the narrow losses in Florida are, the passage of the felon enfranchisement initiative – expanding the electorate by something like 1 million voters – probably makes Florida a Blue state from now on. That’s a big win; try to draw a map where the Republicans take the Presidency without Florida or Pennsylvania. It basically can’t be done.
Most of all, the Democrats’ popular-vote edge was somewhere above 8%, just where the pre-election polls had put it. I admit to being disappointed; I thought all the money and enthusiasm and organizing effort would lead the Dems to over-perform. But winning the two-party vote 54-46 means that this isn’t, and never will be, Trump’s country.
Good night. It’s still a republic, and we still have to keep it.
I was the leadoff speaker at the American Association of Individual Investors conference in Las Vegas. I enjoyed meeting participants, disproportionately older folk asking questions about how to financially assist their adult children and grandchildren. While there, I took some pics….
Just a quick message to young folk tempted not to vote on November 6. pic.twitter.com/94oe3DI5HG
— Harold Pollack (@haroldpollack) October 7, 2018
If you don’t vote, my mom will come to your house. Where she will offer unsolicited, yet eerily perceptive commentary about your relationship and about your BAE. And no. I don’t know what a BAE is. But my mom does. And she just friended yours, on Facebook.
…So says the White House Council of Economic Advisors, anyway.
Nonlinear functional forms make Trump look even better in most cases
— CEA (@WhiteHouseCEA) September 10, 2018
I’d wanted to learn how to do K-means image compression in R. So I decided to fact-check CEA’s claim by seeing what President Trump would look like if I compressed his image. Total time from googling R code to posted image: 15 minutes. Props to this guy for the clear code.
On the whole, I would have to say that CEA’s claim checks out…
CEA: "Nonlinear functional forms make Trump look even better in most cases."
Politifact evaluation: True. (kmeans k=2, k=3).
(Not a knock on the President's appearance. Of course he is more handsome than I am. Just a fun opportunity to learn R-based image compression.) pic.twitter.com/DOEP4b3CLl
— Harold Pollack (@haroldpollack) September 11, 2018
Some other cool compressed images below
Continue reading “President Trump does look better with nonlinear functional forms”
…And she did some walking around…
On a poorly-planned trip, I got fewer good pics than last year, but a few decent ones. Mainly, the trip demonstrated the value of high-quality equipment. My full-frame camera with a 300mm lens got much better pics than my new super-zoom Nikon P900. The P900 got a few cool pictures of parachutists from miles away, but the soft lens, camera jitter, and related challenges made it hard to do action shots at high zoom.