January 10, 2004
Todays' polling numbers: "A two-man race"
Dean 35 (even)
Clark 21 (+1)
Kerry 10 (-1)
Lieberman 8 (even)
Gephardt 4 (-1)
Edwards 3 (even)
Kucinich 2 (even)
Undecided 17 (+1)
Dean 24
Clark 16
Lieberman 10
Gephardt 10
Kerry 9
Edwards 7
Moseley-Braun 4
Sharpton 3
Kucinich 1
Not Sure 16
Rasmussen's analysis:
At the national level, the contest for the Democratic Presidential nomination is becoming a two-man race. While former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to lead the pack, General Wesley Clark is gaining ground and pulling away from the rest of the field.
[snip]
In the "Red States," those carried by George W. Bush in the last election, the race is even tighter. Twenty percent (20%) of Red State Democrats prefer Dean while 19% prefer Clark. In the Blue States (carried by Gore), Dean leads Clark 28% to 13%.
Dean 20
Clark 13
Lieberman 8
Kerry 7
Gephardt 7
Moseley Braun 4
Edwards 4
Kucinich 3
Sharpton 2
Other 5
Not sure 27
Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:
Dean 63.0-63.9
Clark 21.2-22.0
Gephardt 4.9- 5.4
Kerry 4.1- 4.4
Clinton 2.5- 2.7
Lieberman 0.7- 0.9
ROF 2.7- 3.1
Tradesports
Dean 64 66.5
Field 23.1-28.0 (includes Clark)
Gephardt; 2.5- 4.0
Clinton 2.7-2.9
Kerry 2.0- 3.9
Lieberman 1.4-2.0
Edwards 1.5-2.0
Kos, who follows this stuff more closely than I do, says that Dean and Kerry are taking a calculated risk by allowing Clark a free run in New Hampshire, hoping that good results in Iowa will focus media attention on them in the days jus before New Hampshire votes. That makes sense.
But he also says that Clark will find it hard to get free media in the days right after Iowa. That I'm less sure of. With all the polling pointing to a two-man race, it seems to me Clark will keep getting covered, and especially in New Hampshire.
