January 07, 2004
The lines finally cross
Posted by
Mark Kleiman
Dean 36, down 1 from yesterday
Clark 16, up 2
Kerry 13, down 1
Lieberman 7, even
A two-point jump in a three-day moving average means that the most recent day must have been a very good one for Clark. That could, of course, be noise: there's a big error band around the estimate from a daily sample of 150. But it could also indicate real movement.
If Clark were to establish a firm hold on second place, that might make him a magnet for the 16% "undecided" and for some of the 31% now going to Kerry, Leiberman, and the also-rans.
Maybe skipping Iowa wasn't such a bad move after all?
