February 22, 2007
Libby betting
The InTrade "Libby Guilty" contract is now trading at 79 bid, 83 asked; that is, if you're willing to bet on acquittal you can get 4-to-1 odds. That's a life-of-contract high; back in October, you could have bought "Libby Guilty" for 20 cents.
The closing arguments seem to have driven the price much higher; not surprising, from some of the eyewitness accounts.
Footnote Now that on-line betting is thoroughly illegal, I'd never think of doing any myself, but someone ought to review the history of InTrade legal contracts. My sense is that they're generally biased toward the defense, especially early in a case. Flat-out acquittals are actually much rarer than you'd guess. You can buy "DeLay.Guilty.Laundering" for 33 cents; the bid is only 25 cents. Those seem like very attractive odds.
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