October 25, 2006
Pleasant reading
Do the editors of the Southern Political Report know something the rest of us don't? I sure hope so.
With two weeks to go before the election, SPR’s best guess is that the Southern Democrats will probably gain one governorship (AR), two US Senate seats (TN & VA), eight US House seats (FL 13, 16 & 22; KY 3 & 4; NC 11; TX 22 & VA2) -- and we rate three more as toss-ups (KY2, NC8 & VA10).
Note that VA-10 is Judy Feder, Dean of Public Policy at Georgetown, against Frank Wolf. That's a race where finite amounts of money could make a difference.
Policy wonks of the world, unite! You have nothing to lose but your speadsheets! You have a world to optimize!
Or something.
That analysis seems optimistic. I haven't seen any polling that puts FL-22 in the D column.
Also TN and VA are not at all sure bets at this point.
Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot at October 25, 2006 06:27 PMNeither is KY03
Posted by: at October 26, 2006 10:20 AMNot to be overly cynical about recent polls showing huge Dem gains, but the Rovemeister's comments on NPR the other evening about "we've got the polls" showing Repubs holding the House and Senate should not be dismissed as "rallying the base", or other such pre-election cliches. If history has taught us anything since Nov 2000, it has been the ability of Repubs to do what is necessary - legal or otherwise - to gain and keep control of the election process, and to ensure that their candidates WILL WIN that should worry everyone who is hoping or expecting that the long, national nightmare of the Cheney regime is slowing unwinding. Do not expect an orderly transition to a Democratic House, let alone the Senate, regardless of what exit polls or "projected winners" would show Election Evening - these guys just won't accede to "popular will" without first burning down the house, count on it.
Posted by: barrisj at October 26, 2006 10:30 AMThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
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