October 10, 2006
Seminar announcement:
The Dynamics of Deterrence
I'll be talking at the National Institute of Justice (810 7th. St., N.W., Washington) this Thursday, October 12, at 1 pm. If you're interested in hearing the talk, please email me at markarkleiman (at) gmail (dot) com and I'll ask my hosts to add you to the guest list. The seminar breaks promptly at 2 p.m. I think they're serving lunch, though I'm not sure.
I'll be giving more or less the same talk later in the term at George Mason and at the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. Beau Kilmer, Andrew Morral, and I should have a draft of the paper sometime this month.
Here's the abstract:
The Dynamics of Deterrence
When enforcement capacity is constrained, potential offenders face a interdependent choices: the greater the frequency of offending, the less the risk of punishment for any given offender. This can generate a "tipping" situation in which both high violation rates and low violation rates are self-sustaining in the face of the same underlying characteristics of potential offenders and the same level of enforcement capacity.
If instead we fix the ratio of sanctions to violations, then as long as rate of offenses slopes downward as a function of the sanctions risk, and above some level is more than unit-elastic, the amount of sanctions capacity used will form an inverted U.
Under these assumptions, a temporary increment to enforcement capacity can produce lasting benefits by "tipping" a high-violation-rate equilibrium into a low-violation-rate equilibrium. Even where no additional capacity is available, a strategy of sequential concentration, in which a subset of offenders is singled out for attention and that subset is expanded as falling violation rates free up capacity, can have the same effect.
A simple agent-based simulation demonstrates these phenomena, instantiated in a variety of actual programs including the grafitti and squeegee crackdowns in New York, Operation Cease-Fire in Boston, the low-arrest drug crackdowns in High Point, NC, and elsewhere, and the HOPE probation project in Hawai'i. Full exploitation of the underlying principle could lead to reduced crime and reduced incarceration.
Not to detract at all from your paper, but am I correct in thinking this is an adaptation of military strategy to crime enforcement? I mean, we form organized groups and attack specific targets in groups instead of spreading limited resources out equally over the entire theater to produce similar results.
Sometimes hindsight is almost mocking in it's revelation.
Posted by: Brendan at October 10, 2006 11:40 PMProofreading? Missing word?
"Under these assumptions, a temporary in enforcement capacity . . . "
Or do you mean that law enforcement is so underfunded it's getting cops from temp agencies?
Posted by: JL at October 11, 2006 05:23 AMSome folks might be interested in a podcast of your talk being made available.
Posted by: David Gipson at October 11, 2006 07:46 AMJL:
Thanks. Fixed.
David Gipson:
I'll see what I can do.
Very interesting site ! Good work ! Nongratulations :)
Posted by: Qtpovxji at December 8, 2006 05:53 AMXrcevtqc
[url=http://4nauto.org/volvo]volvo[/url]
Xrcevtqc
Great page! I think it's cool! When is the next update?
Posted by: Annas at December 8, 2006 09:55 PMI am glad to find this site.
Posted by: Christian at December 8, 2006 10:23 PMit is very nice to be on this site pls.your effort is nice keep it moving.
Posted by: Phillip at December 8, 2006 10:30 PMVery nice site and very informativity!
Posted by: Christian at December 8, 2006 10:53 PMYour site is very very cool !! I love it :) Respect !
Posted by: Benua at December 10, 2006 04:38 AMVery nice site. Thanks for your hard work in this site. I m glad I stopped by and will again many times.
Posted by: Robert at December 10, 2006 04:43 AMNice site it's very interesting site! your site is fantastic.
Posted by: Rachel at December 11, 2006 04:34 AMYour site is very very cool !! I love it :) Respect !
Posted by: Rachel at December 11, 2006 04:44 AMVery nice site. Thanks for your hard work in this site. I m glad I stopped by and will again many times.
Posted by: Louise at December 12, 2006 10:46 AMIt is very creative and includes a wealth of information.
Posted by: Charles at December 12, 2006 11:00 AMVery interesting site ! Good work ! Nongratulations :)
Posted by: Peter at December 12, 2006 11:33 AMHi! Very nice and beautifull place! Keep it!
Posted by: Gaultier at December 13, 2006 01:03 AMThis site rule the world! Keep fighting
Posted by: Arthur at December 13, 2006 01:16 AMThis site rule the world! Keep fighting
Posted by: Alex at December 13, 2006 01:18 AMHi! Very nice and beautifull place! Keep it!
Posted by: Dima at December 13, 2006 01:37 AMVery interesting site ! Good work ! Nongratulations :)
Posted by: Patrick at December 13, 2006 02:09 AMit is very nice to be on this site pls.your effort is nice keep it moving.
Posted by: Lawn at December 13, 2006 02:37 AMHi! Very nice and beautifull place! Keep it!
Posted by: Dima at December 13, 2006 02:50 AMYour site is very very cool !! I love it :) Respect !
Posted by: Oscar at December 13, 2006 04:44 AMIt is very creative and includes a wealth of information.
Posted by: Jonny at December 13, 2006 04:51 AMit is very nice to be on this site pls.your effort is nice keep it moving.
Posted by: James at December 13, 2006 05:00 AMHi! Very nice and beautifull place! Keep it!
Posted by: Gaultier at December 13, 2006 05:02 AMYour site is very very cool !! I love it :) Respect !
Posted by: Pierre at December 13, 2006 05:47 AMVery interesting site ! Good work ! Nongratulations :)
Posted by: Pierre at December 13, 2006 06:13 AMGreat site! Regards: Thanks for the good info Way I'll be back very soon to see any update.
Posted by: Jean at December 13, 2006 06:39 AMIt is very creative and includes a wealth of information.
Posted by: Danila at December 13, 2006 06:58 AMI am glad to find this site.
Posted by: Paul at December 13, 2006 07:19 AMVery nice site and very informativity!
Posted by: James at December 18, 2006 07:46 AMThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
