May 08, 2006
Polls, Polls, Polls
A great source of information to get a sense of the variation in the president's approval can be found here. I'm not terribly impressed by overall, national polls at this point, especially as George Bush is not, and will not, be on the ballot in 2006. But looking for states that voted for the president in 2004 that are now especially hostile DOES seem like a useful exercise. Based on these data (and I can't vouch for all of them), the Bush 2004 states that are now most hostile are: Colorado (net -26% hostile); Florida (-24); Iowa (-27); Kentucky (-20); Missouri (-25), New Mexico (-26); Ohio (-29); Virginia (-23). The real question is how intense is the voters' hostility? How much are they looking for any way to express their displeasure with the administration? And will Democrats find an issue or a language through which to convince voters that the rational thing to do in 2006 is to take out their hostility on whoever happens to have an (R) next to their name on the ballot? In Britain, this sort of thing happens all the time in by-elections and local council races, but it is less prevalent in the US. But the Republicans figured out a way to do it in 1994, and the Dems. just might succeed--even in races that look like they're not competitive based on past experience--where others have failed.
Wow, those Rhode Islanders really hate Shrub, don't they.
Posted by: Chuchundra at May 8, 2006 07:16 PMLet's run down the states you noted, in order of disapproval:
KENTUCKY (-20): Two potential House pickups - Anne Northrup's always-contentious 3rd, and Ken Lucas' shot at a comeback in the 4th
VIRGINIA: A longshot Senate race (Allen is a favorite) and a potentially competitive House pickup (Thelma Drake is so-so in VA-2)
FLORIDA (-24): A Senate seat that's probably going our way (Nelson is a monster fundraiser, Harris is an embarrassment), a governor's race that's only slightly GOP-favored, a clear swing seat (Claw Shaw's 22nd) and a couple of maybe-if-there's-a-wave seats (Harris' open 13th, Bilrakis' open 21st, Foley's 16th)
MISSOURI (-25): A clearly competitive, maybe even toss-up Senate race (barely-positive approval Talent is within the margin of error in every poll)
COLORADO (-26): An open governor's seat (which is a possible Dem pickup), two competitive House possible pickups (Bob Beauprez' fair-fight open seat in CO-7, right-wing nut Marilyn Musgrave's 4th), and a necessary defense (John Salazar in CO-3)
NEW MEXICO (-26): A D-favored governorship and Senate hold (Richardson and Bingaman are pretty safe) and a hot House pickup opportunity (Heather Wilson in NM-1)
IOWA (-27): An endangered D-held open governor's seat (Vilsack is departing), a necessary House defense (Boswell in the 3rd), an open swing seat (Nussle's 1st, although the GOP will benefit from his shot at the governorship a la Beauprez in CO-7), and a maybe-if-there's-a-wave House race (Jim Leach's 2nd district is clearly swingy)
OHIO (-27): The 800-pound-gorilla. An embattled Republican party best by scandal, a Senate seat to pick up(Dewine is sorta shaky), a governorship to pick up (Strickland is leading Blackwell in most polls), a corruption-plagued House race (Ney's 18th), two other clear swing pickup opportunities (Deborah Pryce v. Mary Jo Kilroy in the 15th, Steve Chabot v. John Cranley in the 1st), two necessary open-seat defenses (Brown's 13th and Strickland's 6th, both benefiting from the statewide candidacies of their old occupants)
If...if the D's figure out how to play this dynamic, that's 13 House races, 3 Senate races, and 4 governorships that could be picked up. And that, friends, is how you get two seats away from a Dem-controlled House in theoretically red states.
Posted by: Seth D. Michaels at May 8, 2006 09:36 PMThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
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