May 02, 2006
Charlie Cook: Republicans face an "intensity gap"
Charlie Cook's latest column is sure to bring smiles to Democratic faces.
The usual partisan intensity pattern — Democrats do best among adults, less well among registered voters, and even less well than that among likely voters— has reversed. The Democrats' edge among "very likely" voters on the generic Congressional ballot is now up to the high teens. Cook is talking about a 1994-level rout, but for the good guys this time.
There is growing evidence that Republicans will face a voter turnout problem in the November midterm elections.
[snip]
A new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey of 1,003 adults, conducted Thursday through Sunday, showed 36 percent approving of the job Bush is doing and 59 percent disapproving. The results were virtually the same among registered voters. The poll has a 3.1-point error margin.Studies show that voters in Bush-friendly red states drive significantly more miles each month than those in blue states, and it's a pretty logical assumption that gasoline usage is much greater in the predominately suburban, rural and small town congressional districts most often represented by Republicans, than in more compact, urban districts usually held by Democrats. That means the longer gasoline prices remain high, the worse it will be for GOP candidates.
It is clear that these issues have taken a toll. RT Strategies, headed by Thom Riehle, a veteran Democratic pollster, and Lance Tarrance, one of the pioneering pollsters on the Republican side, found that when respondents were asked which party they would like to see in control of Congress after these elections, Democrats had an advantage of 11 points among all adults, 48-37 percent, 12 points among registered voters, 49-37 percent, and 17 points among the most likely voters, 53-36 percent.
In the other variation of what has come to be known as the generic congressional ballot test, when people were asked whether they planned on voting for the Democratic candidate for Congress or the Republican, Democrats led by 12 points among adults, 44-32 percent; by 13 points among registered voters, 45-32 percent; and by a whopping 18 points among those most likely to vote, 50-32 percent.
Simply put, there are a lot of Republicans who are showing little interest in this election, which matches a downward trend that has been seen in party identification over the last two years. The two parties are no longer evenly matched.
"Most likely voters" were those who, when asked on a scale of one (low) to 10 (high) how interested they were in the November midterm elections, selected nine or 10. Among all registered voters, 50 percent described their level of interest as 10, but there was a huge discrepancy between the parties, with 54 percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans choosing the highest number. Among independents, 47 percent chose 10. This double-digit intensity disparity between the two parties was also found in the March and April NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls.
Counting those who rated their interest as nine or 10 in our poll, 60 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans qualified as very likely voters; those levels are generally more reflective of a presidential race rather than turnout for a midterm election. If someone was looking for the best possible warning sign of a voter turnout problem for Republicans, the level of interest would be it. These numbers amount to a sharp departure from the last two elections, when Republican voters were more motivated than Democrats, and, in fact, turned out in higher numbers.
On his website, cookpolitical.com, Cook adds:
The overall downward trend is clear enough to make any Republican candidate or consultant reach for an air-sickness bag. Simply put, there is no reason not to expect that the political environment will be as hostile to Republicans this fall as it was to Democrats in 1994, when a rout cost them control of both chambers of Congress.
The bad news is that this makes war with Iran more likely.
Footnote Cook sends out his weekly column free; you can sign up here.
All well and good, but is there a time of year when these polls mean less than they do now? It's 6 months to election day, and a lot can happen - to gasoline prices, in particular - in that span of time. If the price of oil decreases significantly before November, look for the inevitable Republican rebound and another two years of one-party rule.
A "voter turnout problem" in the month of May is not something worth worrying about.
The poll itself is particularly meaningless. Don't Democrats always do well in the generic "which party would you vote for" question? When it comes to crunch time, and voters are faced with real names on real ballots, the numbers are likely to change significantly.
Posted by: M. Bulger at May 3, 2006 08:57 AMIt's just amazing to me that in 12 short years the Republicans have acquired all of the most unattractive characteristics of a long-held legislative majority that it took the Democrats 40 years to perfect. Maybe things really are speeded up these days. If the Dems take over in '06, maybe by '12 they'll be as corrupt and complacent as the Repubs are now and as the Dems were in '92.
Posted by: Stuart at May 3, 2006 09:53 AMdog style sex video mom and dog sex
Posted by: Pogriziuz at October 8, 2006 07:39 PMdog style sex video mom and dog sex
Posted by: Pogriziuz at October 8, 2006 07:41 PMamateur masturbation movies teen girls masturbation
Posted by: Zhgq at October 30, 2006 11:51 AMyprpr
Posted by: Luciano Hulsey at November 1, 2006 02:31 AMClassical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Posted by: Ali Wiseman at November 12, 2006 06:27 AMThe first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers...
Posted by: Brody Sutton at November 27, 2006 03:02 AMJonathan Ross is dubbed "risque" by Ofcom but not in breach of rules over an interview with David Cameron...
Posted by: Christian Horner at November 30, 2006 03:45 PMTV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause...
Posted by: German Kenyon at December 4, 2006 01:01 PMPop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Posted by: Talon Shuler at December 5, 2006 01:20 AMLondon-born rapper Sway is to be honoured at the BET Hip-Hop awards in the US...
Posted by: Kobe Gallant at December 5, 2006 01:56 PMSinger George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Posted by: Rylan Sosa at December 5, 2006 08:23 PMSinger George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Posted by: Kameron Beckman at December 6, 2006 10:34 AMThe Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Posted by: Omar Mcknight at December 6, 2006 11:37 AMAlec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Posted by: Ibrahim Hoag at December 6, 2006 11:50 AMMadonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
Posted by: Colton Block at December 7, 2006 01:30 AMColombia's vice president is "baffled" by Kate Moss's success following cocaine allegations...
Posted by: Todd Nakamura at December 7, 2006 02:31 AMSinger George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Posted by: Rey Lozano at December 7, 2006 02:52 AMSocial networking site MySpace is to block users from uploading copyrighted music to its pages...
Posted by: Jamarion Akers at December 7, 2006 03:17 AMLondon-born rapper Sway is to be honoured at the BET Hip-Hop awards in the US...
Posted by: Deshaun Dix at December 11, 2006 01:20 AMTV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause...
Posted by: Jalen Lipscomb at December 11, 2006 02:00 AMVeteran game show host Bob Barker is stepping down from hosting The Price is Right after 35 years...
Posted by: Gunner Crowell at December 11, 2006 03:09 AMThe Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Posted by: Hector Fulcher at December 11, 2006 05:59 AMThe Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations...
Posted by: Dylon Noll at December 11, 2006 06:15 AMThe Rolling Stones cancel a gig in Hawaii and postpone other tour dates as Mick Jagger suffers throat troubles...
Posted by: Lonnie Han at December 11, 2006 06:29 AMThe Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Posted by: Stephen Case at December 11, 2006 06:45 AMThe judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
Posted by: Clayton Harrington at December 11, 2006 07:10 AMMadonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
Posted by: Prince Coward at December 11, 2006 07:36 AMSinger George Michael lends the piano on which John Lennon wrote Imagine to an anti-war exhibition...
Posted by: Andres Dunbar at December 11, 2006 08:20 AMThe Red Hot Chili Peppers are leading the way at this years MTV Europe music awards with four nominations...
Posted by: Sidney Poole at December 11, 2006 08:35 AMDoctor Who takes three prizes at the National Television Awards in a repeat of its success last year...
Posted by: Sage Gunderson at December 11, 2006 09:17 AMTV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause...
Posted by: Phoenix Mackenzie at December 11, 2006 09:44 AMClassical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Posted by: Vernon Hayden at December 11, 2006 08:07 PMTV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause...
Posted by: Dwayne Byrnes at December 12, 2006 06:56 AMThe first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers...
Posted by: Wesley Shepherd at December 13, 2006 12:34 AMThe Rolling Stones cancel a gig in Hawaii and postpone other tour dates as Mick Jagger suffers throat troubles...
Posted by: Ralph Boykin at December 13, 2006 02:46 PMMadonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
Posted by: Quinn Sapp at December 13, 2006 02:55 PMSocial networking site MySpace is to block users from uploading copyrighted music to its pages...
Posted by: Cortez Spann at December 13, 2006 04:24 PMThe first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers...
Posted by: Pranav Mccloud at December 13, 2006 06:04 PMThe first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers...
Posted by: Pranav Mccloud at December 13, 2006 06:06 PMVeteran actor William Franklyn, known for voicing the 1960s Schweppes TV adverts, dies aged 81...
Posted by: Darrin Hernandez at December 13, 2006 06:54 PMBorat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (£22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Posted by: Angel Perry at December 14, 2006 05:46 AMRecord company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Posted by: Declan Jeffery at December 15, 2006 11:02 AMThe Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Posted by: Kasey Cate at December 15, 2006 12:19 PMThe Rolling Stones postpone a show in the US to allow singer Sir Mick Jagger time to rest his voice...
Posted by: Kasey Cate at December 15, 2006 12:22 PMAlec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Posted by: Nathen Patten at December 15, 2006 04:00 PMRecord company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Posted by: Anton Dayton at December 17, 2006 01:54 AMWilliam Styron, whose Holocaust novel Sophie's Choice became a film and an opera, has died, aged 81...
Posted by: Marquez Morgan at December 17, 2006 04:27 AMThe Rolling Stones cancel a gig in Hawaii and postpone other tour dates as Mick Jagger suffers throat troubles...
Posted by: Cyrus Saavedra at December 17, 2006 07:18 AMA musical about the witches from The Wizard of Oz breaks West End box office records, its producers say...
Posted by: Gustavo Romero at December 17, 2006 09:00 AMPioneering screenwriter Nigel Kneale, best known for the Quatermass TV serials and films, dies aged 84...
Posted by: Orion Blaine at December 17, 2006 10:49 AMBorat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (£22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Posted by: Andy Strauss at December 17, 2006 12:45 PMBorat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (£22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Posted by: Andy Strauss at December 17, 2006 12:48 PMClassical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Posted by: Ahmad Tyson at December 17, 2006 02:20 PMClassical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Posted by: Ahmad Tyson at December 17, 2006 02:28 PMClassical singer Russell Watson postpones his forthcoming UK tour after undergoing brain surgery...
Posted by: Ahmad Tyson at December 17, 2006 02:28 PMPop trio Atomic Kitten will reform to play a concert in support of jailed Liverpool football fan Michael Shields...
Posted by: Bryce Free at December 17, 2006 03:51 PMAlec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Posted by: Jayden Delacruz at December 17, 2006 05:26 PMAlec Baldwin asks for his voice to be removed from an "unfair" documentary about Arnold Schwarzenegger...
Posted by: Marquez Freeland at December 17, 2006 07:07 PMThe first stage of a £150m investment in regional museums is praised for boosting visitor numbers...
Posted by: Dustin Dial at December 17, 2006 09:02 PMBorat creator Sacha Baron Cohen reportedly signs a $42.5m (£22m) film deal starring his character Bruno...
Posted by: Kameron Shephard at December 17, 2006 10:50 PMLondon-born rapper Sway is to be honoured at the BET Hip-Hop awards in the US...
Posted by: Giovani Stubblefield at December 18, 2006 07:03 AMRecord company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Posted by: Brendan Lockett at December 18, 2006 07:23 AMMadonna says she may adopt another child from abroad following her proposed adoption of a Malawian boy...
Posted by: Clifford Emerson at December 26, 2006 01:07 AMRecord company EMI sign a deal with the estate of crooner Dean Martin to use the singer's likeness...
Posted by: Dayton Rey at December 26, 2006 03:49 AMDoctor Who takes three prizes at the National Television Awards in a repeat of its success last year...
Posted by: Sincere Esposito at December 27, 2006 06:43 AMTV host Oprah Winfrey gives audience members $1,000 (£526) each to donate to a charitable cause...
Posted by: Zack Soileau at December 27, 2006 07:10 AMPioneering screenwriter Nigel Kneale, best known for the Quatermass TV serials and films, dies aged 84...
Posted by: Jesse Landon at December 27, 2006 09:43 AMMicrosoft and Peter Jackson postpone the making of a film based on the Halo video game after backers pull out...
Posted by: Kamron Turk at December 27, 2006 11:05 AMSocial networking site MySpace is to block users from uploading copyrighted music to its pages...
Posted by: Kaleb Vogt at December 27, 2006 01:02 PMLondon-born rapper Sway is to be honoured at the BET Hip-Hop awards in the US...
Posted by: Maverick Witt at December 27, 2006 04:57 PMLondon-born rapper Sway is to be honoured at the BET Hip-Hop awards in the US...
Posted by: Ian Crowe at December 27, 2006 05:26 PMThe judge who put coded messages in his Da Vinci Code plagiarism trial ruling has written another...
Posted by: Darius Portillo at December 27, 2006 07:11 PMThanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (sign out)
(If you haven't left a comment here before, you may need to be approved by the site owner before your comment will appear. Until then, it won't appear on the entry. Thanks for waiting.)
