Liveblogging the midterms, Part II

7:45 So far, so good. FiveThirty Eight started the night predicting that the Democrats would lose a Senate seat and pick up 35 House seats. That’s now a break-even in the Senate and +45 in the House.

Gillum and Nelson seem to be running about even with each other in Florida, about three points ahead of their opponents with more than half the vote in.

7:58 Now the 528 predictions are back down to R+1 in the Senate and D+41 in the House. Donnelly isn’t looking good in Indiana; he was even-money on PredictIt earlier in the day, but he’s now 4-to-1 against. Apparently the rural counties are coming in hard for his opponent.

First pick-up call of the night: Wexton over Comstock in VA-10. That was expected.

8:24 Doesn’t look good for Gillum right now. Wow. Florida looks like a nail-biter.

CNN continues to over-interpret early results without telling us where early votes are coming from.

Charlie Baker wins in Mass reminder that socially-moderate Republicans could be very competitive in blue states, if GOP primary electorates would nominate mainstream candidates

Wolf Blitzer yells a lot. If he were on Twitter, he would be all-caps. These early results would be so much more informative if they were embedded in some sort of predictive-analytic model based on prior state patterns.

8:25 No surprise: Pritzker and Hogan win governorships.

8:26 James Carville says this will not be a Democratic wave election. Seems a little dour.

Starting a new post now.

Author: Mark Kleiman

Professor of Public Policy at the NYU Marron Institute for Urban Management and editor of the Journal of Drug Policy Analysis. Teaches about the methods of policy analysis about drug abuse control and crime control policy, working out the implications of two principles: that swift and certain sanctions don't have to be severe to be effective, and that well-designed threats usually don't have to be carried out. Books: Drugs and Drug Policy: What Everyone Needs to Know (with Jonathan Caulkins and Angela Hawken) When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment (Princeton, 2009; named one of the "books of the year" by The Economist Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results (Basic, 1993) Marijuana: Costs of Abuse, Costs of Control (Greenwood, 1989) UCLA Homepage Curriculum Vitae Contact: Markarkleiman-at-gmail.com

4 thoughts on “Liveblogging the midterms, Part II”

  1. Florida is definitely in nailbiting territory; 90% in and senate and gov tied. Lots of Rs coming out to vote today; if it’s this close, lots of opportunity to look for voter obstruction. There doesn’t seem to be a big pool of likely D precincts still out.

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