Over at the Washington Post‘s Wonkblog section, I had a long conversation with Zeke Emanuel about his new book Reinventing American Health Care: How the Affordable Care Act will Improve our Terribly Complex, Blatantly Unjust, Outrageously Expensive, Grossly Inefficient, Error Prone System.
We covered the full range of health-wonk topics. Emanuel is scathing about many short-term implementation failures of the Affordable Care. Yet he is quite bullish about health reform’s long-term prospects.
There are a few surprises, too. For starters, Emanuel notes that ACA might have included further malpractice reforms had physician groups or Republican senators really wanted that. Whatever was said in public, behind closed doors doctors didn’t prioritize malpractice; nor were Republicans ready to actually negotiate about it. President Obama and others were ready to deal–were there a deal to be had.
Emanuel also offers some striking blue-sky predictions. Most notably, he predicts that the long trend of explosive health care cost growth will abate. Over the coming decades, he predicts, health expenditures will grow no faster than the national economy: “GDP+0.” If this actually happened, our nation’s public finances would be fundamentally different.