The Reality-Based Community

Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.

  • Home
  • About
  • BOTEC Analysis
You are here: Home / AEI expert predicts Obama loss

AEI expert predicts Obama loss

November 5, 2012 By Mark Kleiman @markarkleiman

This sounds scary:

I just talked to one of my best Team McCain sources who told me that heading into today all the key battleground polls were moving hard and fast in their direction. The source, hardly a perma-optimist, thinks it will be a long night, but that McCain is going to win. So add this with the new Battleground poll (Obama +1.9 only) and the rising stock market..

Oh, wait …

What’s amazing is that the Red team does this year after year, and people keep getting fooled by it.

[h/t Tweet @Jonathan Chait]

Update And, on cue, here’s this year’s version.

And there will be no professional repercussions for Toby Harnden when the bogositude is revealed tomorrow evening.

Second update And here’s the retraction. It’s surprising but true that Red team supporters don’t seem to get tired of being lied to by their own side.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: Campaign 2012

Comments

  1. Brett Bellmore says

    November 5, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    Why, I recall they did it back in ’80, too, the fools.

    Something of stopped clocks here, but you know what they say about stopped clocks.

    • Nick says

      November 5, 2012 at 4:15 pm

      That they’re completely useless to people who want to know what time it is?

    • Herschel says

      November 5, 2012 at 4:29 pm

      Nowadays stopped clocks just sit there flashing 00:00.

    • MobiusKlein says

      November 5, 2012 at 4:56 pm

      Did you miss the point of the post?

      Long & short: AEI is a hack organization. What they say is statistically independent of the truth.

    • Cranky Observer says

      November 5, 2012 at 5:00 pm

      Brett Bellmore: crickets.wav

      Cranky

    • J. Michael Neal says

      November 5, 2012 at 5:57 pm

      Hey, Brett, how do you feel about the Ohio Secretary of State installing untested software onto the voting machines in some counties at the last minute. If it were on the up-and-up, he’d have given everyone advanced notice, right?

  2. Byomtov says

    November 5, 2012 at 4:22 pm

    Why does a rising stock market portend a Romney victory? That makes no sense.

    • Betsy says

      November 5, 2012 at 4:29 pm

      Because the ConfIdence Fairy, silly! That’s why!

    • Warren Terra says

      November 5, 2012 at 4:52 pm

      If all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

      Or to use a more recent meme: Everything is Excellent News!! For John McCain!!

  3. Brett Bellmore says

    November 5, 2012 at 6:24 pm

    I suppose at this point I should insert an old quote about eggs, but why bother? See you in 24.

    • NickT says

      November 5, 2012 at 6:32 pm

      I suspect that in ’24, Brett, you’ll be explaining why it is that the GOP hasn’t won the presidency since Dubya screwed the pooch, pissed in the soup and poisoned the well. It’ll be amusing to hear your squeaks of rage as Texas and Arizona go blue and stay blue.

      • Brett Bellmore says

        November 5, 2012 at 7:08 pm

        I am quite willing to believe that Romney can lose this thing, it’s more likely than not IMO. But you don’t get your days of screaming obscenities until AFTER he’s lost it, which doesn’t happen until tomorrow.

        Actually, come to think of it, if Romney pulls off a win, you’ll probably be screaming obscenities anyway, so it is kind of silly for you to wait for the actual election…

        • Steven B says

          November 5, 2012 at 8:46 pm

          Brett, that’s pretty darn correct. If Romney takes it I’ll be grinding obscenities between clenched teeth as I prepare for the vertical fall of this country into chaos and dissolution. Dubya’s wrecking crew got nothin’ on this reptile.

          • Anomalous says

            November 6, 2012 at 1:03 am

            Dubya’s wrecking crew IS Romney’s wrecking crew. Romney just bumped the big names off the list in hopes that nobody would nitice.

          • Katja says

            November 6, 2012 at 8:53 am

            While I would strongly prefer it if Romney did not win the election, I don’t think the consequences would be quite that apocalyptic, if only because he’d still have to deal with a democratic majority in the Senate. I’m worried more about the long term consequences, such as Supreme Court appointments (imagine a Supreme Court with seven conservative justices) or the tea party feeling encouraged and Republicans shifting even further to the right (in the long term, we do need a sane conservative party).

        • matt w says

          November 6, 2012 at 6:41 am

          Well, we have to wait to see which obscenities we shout.

      • Cranky Observer says

        November 5, 2012 at 7:18 pm

        Ah, Mr. Bellmore meant see you in 24 _minutes_!

        Cranky

      • Brett Bellmore says

        November 5, 2012 at 7:40 pm

        Technically, seeing you in 24 doesn’t mean I won’t see you in 1, also. 😉

        Nah, insomnia. Good night.

      • Betsy says

        November 5, 2012 at 7:48 pm

        Love how our switch hitter can espouse all Republican / Randian views until they bump up against an actual failed candidacy or Presidency, at which point he disavows any love for the person holding, and/or disastrous administration that resulted from, said views.

  4. Ed Whitney says

    November 5, 2012 at 7:41 pm

    Hang on! Brett may have some odd ways of interpreting the Constitution, but at least he uses his real name, anon, and there are supposed to be limits on violations of civility on this site. What did he do to poison anyone?

    • H says

      November 5, 2012 at 8:45 pm

      Just heard Wang’s latest prediction on KCRW. 98-99% probability that Obama wins. http://election.princeton.edu/

  5. Mark Kleiman says

    November 5, 2012 at 8:11 pm

    A couple of nasties directed at Brett have been zapped.
    Just to recap: the rules forbid insults directed at posters or other commenters.
    Brett and Bux and sd are valued members of this community. Please treat them with respect.

  6. doretta says

    November 5, 2012 at 9:00 pm

    Sleep well, Brett. I gotta say, some of the comments here don’t sound like they are coming from people who think their candidate is a 98-99% lock to win. I’m not sure what I think myself but as far as what I feel, it feels too much like Al Gore for me to be entirely comfortable. There are a lot of assumptions built into how the polls and the models derived from them treat things like turnout. Looks close from here. Hosted a phone bank at my house today and will be doing the same tomorrow.

  7. anon says

    November 6, 2012 at 8:06 am

    Hey Ed Whitney, you are being inconsistent. If words don’t have power then I could have violated no norms of civility by using them and if ignorance and deception don’t poison discourse then I don’t understand the concept. The only thing that my anonymity tells you about me is that I have a different view of the cost/benefit of people knowing who I am, but since you are a big believer (I assume from your words) in the fallacy of all ad hominem arguments then who I am should not matter.

    The civil way to say what I said is this:

    Brett, it seems to me you add nothing useful to the conversation and that, in fact, you often mislead the discussion in ways that waste time and annoy me. Although, I may take perverse pleasure, at times, in engaging you and, at other times, in insulting you; in general, I do not believe you add anything useful to this website’s discussion thread and wish that you would refrain from participating.

Blogroll

  • Balloon Juice
  • The Belgravia Dispatch
  • Brad DeLong
  • Cop in the ‘hood
  • Crooked Timber
  • Crooks and Liars
  • Echidne of the Snakes
  • Firedoglake
  • A Fistful of Euros
  • Healthinsurance.org Blog
  • Horizons
  • How Appealing
  • The Incidental Economist
  • Informed Comment — Juan Cole
  • Jonathan Bernstein
  • Kevin Drum
  • Marginal Revolution — Tyler Cowen
  • Marijuana Monitor
  • The Moderate Voice
  • Obsidian Wings
  • Patheos
  • Philosoraptor
  • Plato o Plomo — Alejandro Hope
  • Political Animal
  • Politics Upside Down
  • Progressive Blog Digest
  • Progressive Blue
  • Slacktivist
  • Snopes
  • Strange Doctrines
  • Ta-Nehisi Coates
  • The Volokh Conspiracy (Washington Post)
  • Vox Pop

Recent Posts

  • Percentages and the pastrami panic…
  • Do professors care whether college students are actually learning?
  • Cannabis News Round-Up
  • Emergency
  • Weekend Film Recommendation: Hangover Square

Archives

Topic Areas

Copyright © 2017 The Reality-Based Community  â€¢  Designed & Developed by ReadyMadeWeb LLC