The Reality-Based Community

November 6th, 2012

Good turnout in Cleveland

by Mark Kleiman

Per Craig Timberg of the Washington Post, Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, is voting smoothly.

2008 turnout: 61% of registered voters.
Early voting this year: 27%
Live voting by 2:30 today: 23%.

As a rule of thumb, about 40% of the live vote happens in the morning, 20% during the day, and the last 40% in the evening. (Ohio polls stay open until 7:30.) So Cuyahoga could be on track to about 65%. Not so bad.

Betfair odds are now 9/2, pushing the probability of returning to the Dark Ages down to 18%.

Update

LA Times reports smooth, heavy voting statewide in Ohio.

Second update Per Greg Sargent, Obama camp says it’s hitting its turnout targets in VA as well, including the campus vote.

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Posted: Tuesday, November 6th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
1 Comment »

One Response to “Good turnout in Cleveland”

1. koreyel says:

   November 6, 2012 at 4:40 pm

   So Cuyahoga could be on track to about 65%. Not so bad.

   Wow. 65% is killer. That’s crackin’ crackers good.
   No doubt many of your readers saw this Waldman piece:

   http://prospect.org/article/us-voter-turnout-better-you-might-think

   Here is the money quote:
   

   The highest voter turnout in the post-war period was in 1960, when 63.8 percent of the voting-eligible population came to the polls. It did decline slightly for a few years thereafter, but it went back up over 60 percent in 1992, then fell to its lowest post-war point (52.6 percent) in 1996, an election in which things were going well in the country, reducing any particular sense of urgency, and most critically, one candidate led comfortably throughout (one of the things that gets people to the polls is a close race). But then turnout increased in 2000, increased again in 2004, and increased again in 2008. The turnout of 61.6 percent in 2008 was the highest since 1964.