Update Andrew Gelman points out, reasonably, that a 2:1 proposition sometimes comes in on the short side. So if all “too close to call” means is that the outcome isn’t certain, then yes: the election is too close to call. But it isn’t a toss-up. That’s the point I way trying to make below.
All the chatter – especially from the right wing, but also from the Village Idiots and the Eeyores on the progressive side – suggests that the race is too close to call.
If you’re willing to bet on Romney, you can get slightly better than 2:1 at Betfair. That suggests a 33% chance of disaster. Nate Silver thinks it’s closer to 25%. On InTrade it’s a slightly more discouraging 36%. IEM‘s winner-take-all market is about who wins the popular vote, but its vote-share market gives Obama a 4-point edge, about twice the margin Silver’s model predicts.
Yes, something horrible could happen. But this is not a tied ball game. Romney’s a touchdown behind with five minutes to play.
And Romney just fumbled.