When I left Manchester NH this morning, Obama’s re-election was trading at 69 cents on the dollar at InTrade, near its life-of-contract high the day Osama bought his farm. When I landed in DC, it was up to 72 cents. That’s a very big one-day jump, suggesting that something just happend to move the needle.
But when I check TPM and Memeorandum, I don’t see a triggering event. Yes, there’s another good poll out, but Gallup tracking continues to trend in the wrong direction.
All I can see that looks game-changing are the NYT and Politico and AP stories suggesting that Romney might have lost his cash edge. (And of course the worse his odds get, the less money he can raise.)
Did I miss something, or did the InTrade bettors just suddenly decide to catch up with Nate Silver, or believe Silver’s analysis that landline-only polls are understating Obama’s edge? ‘Tis a puzzlement.
Footnote The NYT story is fascinating in its suggestion that Romney’s cash advantage might have been largely mythical all along. Paradoxically, both campaigns might have found it advantageous to tell the story that way, with Obama hoping to scare money out of his small-money donors and Romney wanting to convince his big-money donors that influence with him would be worth buying.