I’ve had a good time guest-posting for Ta-Nehisi Coates this week, mostly (as promised) recycling some previous RBC material: a note on high-stakes educational testing paired with a statement of Dukenfield’s Law, another on classified information (the main “state secret” turns out to be that the state makes mistakes). reflections on personal pronouns, on the mathematics of moral responsibility, and on early gangbanger fiction, Lowry Heussler’s classic analysis of the Gates arrest, and an obit for my father.
One post that got some attention was about some practical steps for changing drug policy.
Two items on my list of reforms drew the most flak in comments: the abolition of the minimum legal drinking age and the non-commercial legalization of cannabis.
Note that the drinking-age idea was paired with a tenfold increase in alcohol taxes to about a dollar a drink, roughly doubling the retail price of alcohol. That, plus a zero-tolerance policy on drinking and driving for teenagers, would get you most of the benefits of the current 21-year-old MLDA (and lots of benefits the MLDA canâ€™t provide) without making tens of millions of teenagers into scofflaws. Itâ€™s a good general principle that a law thatâ€™s widely broken is a bad law, and 90% of American 18-year-olds have sampled alcohol, despite the laws against it.
On the cannabis front, my plea is for a â€œgrow-your-ownâ€ policy: consumers would be allowed to cultivate pot for their own use, to give it away, or to join small consumer-owned co-ops to produce the stuff for them. No commercial sales.
â€œWhy not?â€ demanded several outraged commenters. Why allow use but not sale?
Two words provide the gist of the answer: marketing and lobbying. A legal cannabis industry, like the legal beer industry, the legal tobacco industry, the legal fast-food and junk-food industries, and the legal gambling industry, would do everything in its power to expand its sales, including taking political action to weaken whatever regulations and minimize whatever taxes were imposed.
Well, again, why not? Whatâ€™s wrong with persuading someone to engage in what would be a perfectly lawful behavior?
Nothing, if the behavior is harmless as well as lawful. Everything, if the behavior predictably inflicts harm on the person being persuaded.
But cannabis use (like drinking, eating, and gambling) is harmless to most of the people who engage in it. Is it wrong to suggest that someone start a potentially benign activity simply because it might turn into a bad habit?
Might. â€œAye, thereâ€™s the rub.â€ To the consumer, developing a bad habit is bad news. To the marketing executive, itâ€™s the whole point of the exercise. For any potentially addictive commodity or activity, the minority that gets stuck with a bad habit consumes the majority of the product. So the entire marketing effort is devoted to cultivating and maintaining the people whose use is a problem to them and a gold mine to the industry.
Take alcohol, for example. Divide the population into deciles by annual drinking volume. The top decile starts at four drinks a day, averaged year-round. That group consumes half of all the alcohol sold. The next decile does from two to four drinks a day. Those folks sop up the next thirty percent. Casual drinkers – people who have two drinks a day or less â€“ take up only 20% of the total volume. The booze companies cannot afford to have their customers “drink in moderation.”
The relationship is obvious once you think about it. One of what the beer commercials of my youth called â€œreal beer drinkers â€“ people who drink a case or more of beer a weekâ€ is worth two dozen people who only consume a drink a week, which is roughly the national median.
Not everyone in those top two deciles has a diagnosable drinking problem; you could have four drinks every day and never be actively drunk. But thatâ€™s not the typical pattern. Most of those folks have an alcohol abuse disorder. And theyâ€™re the target market. â€œAn innkeeper loves a drunkard,â€ says the Yiddish proverb, â€œexcept as a son-in-law.â€
Since the alcoholic beverage industries are as dependent on alcohol abuse as a chronic drunk is on his wake-up drink, they fiercely resist any effective policies for curtailing it, starting with higher taxes. (Contrary to myth, taxation takes most of its bit out of heavy drinking rather than casual drinking, because alcohol is a much bigger budget item for heavy drinkers.) Would it be technologically possible to have package clerks and bartenders check customers against a list of people who had lost their legal drinking privileges as a result of a criminal conviction for drunk driving or drunken assault? Sure it would. Would the industry hold still for it? No way.
So the prospect of a legal cannabis industry working hard to produce as many chronic stoners as possible, and fighting hard against any sort of effective regulation, fills me with fear. I donâ€™t believe that the actual tobacco companies would enter the cannabis market, but I donâ€™t doubt that the cannabis companies that would emerge from full commercial legalization would have all of the tobacco outfitâ€™s morals â€“ and a less tainted product to sell.
The rate of problem use among cannabis users is lower than the rate of problem drinking among drinkers (lifetime risk of about 10% v. lifetime risk of at least 15%) but thatâ€™s under conditions of illegality and high price. The risks of chronic heavy cannabis use arenâ€™t as dramatic as the risks of chronic heavy drinking â€“ the stuff doesnâ€™t kill neurons or rot your liver, and generates less crazy behavior than beer does â€“ but that doesnâ€™t make those risks negligible. Ask any parent whose fifteen-year-old has decided that cannabis is more fun than geometry. Of the 10% of cannabis smokers who become heavy daily smokers for a while, the median duration of the first spell of heavy use (not counting the risks of relapse) is 44 months. Thatâ€™s not a small chunk to take out a lifetime, especially a young lifetime.
Cannabis isnâ€™t harmful enough to be worth banning. But that doesnâ€™t mean that itâ€™s safe to give Americaâ€™s marketing geniuses a new vice to peddle.