Comments on: Wave election coming? I don’t think so.

By: Brett Bellmore

Brett Bellmore — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:49:40 +0000

’94 can never happen again, for a number of reasons. But the most important is that the Republican Congress elected in ’94 proved to the GOP’s base that electing Republicans didn’t really accomplish anything the GOP claimed to want to do. They’ll never be able to motivate the base again to that extent, given how (justifiably!) cynical the GOP base is about the candidates.

The Obama administration is on it’s way to rendering the Democratic party base similarly cynical, but that would just level the playing field, not give Republicans an advantage.

By: Matt Stevens

Matt Stevens — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:50:15 +0000

What were the Republican Party’s approval numbers before 1994 and 2002? Those were the last two times (and only instances since Eisenhower) the GOP got both a majority of votes and seats.

By: Tom

Tom — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 17:03:39 +0000

I think that the these predictions are based on past “normal” swings between two parties that are seen as somewhat equivalently capable to run the government. I think that the 21st century rejection of the Republican Party by the broad mainstream of public opinion is not “normal”, but has yet to run its course. I don’t think the GOP will rebound until it reboots, and moves away from their present nihilistic course. Assuming that the economy recovers and a Health Care Reform that is not a policy disaster passes, I would think it more likely that the Democratic majorities would grow in 2010, not shrink. The people are not done punishing Republicans yet.

By: jm

jm — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:25:05 +0000

I am skeptical too, but people are fickle and polling numbers can change dramatically in short periods of time. A lot can happen between now and November 2010. Better evidence supporting continued Democratic dominance of Congress can be found here. Of course, these numbers could change dramatically depending on how the Supreme Court rules on Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission.

By: Andrew M.

Andrew M. — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 16:22:41 +0000

Mark,

A lot can happen between now and next November, of course. But it’s still true that the best predictor of election results is the perception of the in-party’s performance. Think of it like this: if you see a poll of a Senate race that has the Republican up 45-30, you might be inclined to give up on that seat. But if the leading candidate is an incumbent, then the picture’s a little different–everyone knows his name, and the fact that less than half of the voters are committed to him indicates that he’s vulnerable.

Right now, the Democrats are like the incumbent; those undecided voters are more likely to break against us than for us. Of course, if the economy rebounds or health reform passes, the picture could look radically different.

For some more, see this post at The Monkey Cage:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/09/generic-house-polling-suggests.html