Sean Quinn says that, against a standard “base” Republican candidate, Democrats now own 269 electoral votes.
* 77 EVs on the Pacific Coast (CA, OR, WA, HI),
* 117 EVs in the Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC)
* 65 EVs in the Upper Midwest (MI, WI, MN, IA, IL),
* 10 EVs in the Mountain West (NM, NV)
So the Dems could lose Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Colorado (and fail to pick up increasingly-competitive Arizona) and still manage to throw the election into the House of Representatives. (Quinn doesn’t do the arithmetic on likely EV shifts due to the 2010 Census, which at a glance look as if they might favor the GOP.)
That means, says Quinn, that the Republicans need to nominate a candidate who can appeal to moderates and independents. But there’s no way today’s GOP can nominate such a candidate.