Apparently those are the odds Gen. Petraeus is quoting on the success of the “surge.”
Given the stakes in getting an awful outcome in Iraq rather than a horrible one, if I thought the chances were really that good I’d be for it. Since I don’t know, I’m still agnostic, though inclined to think that this is just another exercise in Bush/Rove political cynicism dressed up as anti-terrorism, especially given how slap-dash the policy development process seems to have been.
But it would be nice to hear surge supporters acknowledge that this is a desperate throw of the dice, not a strategy that would be likely to work if only the anti-war folks would get out of the way, and that it’s not at all unreasonable for strongly patriotic people to reject the proposal to bet soldiers’ blood at such long odds.
H/t: TPM