Virginia–Ugh

Despite the fact that I voted today in CT, the only race that really, really matters to me is Virginia (where I went to graduate school and where my parents live). With about 93% of the precincts counted, Webb is down about 20,000 votes. But it looks like Richmond City and Arlington aren’t all in. The data source I’m using shows Richmond City only 2/3 in, and Arlington 50%. If the rest of the votes break the way they’ve been breaking in those two places, there’s enough votes there to put Webb ahead. That said, there are about 115,000 absentee ballots to count (if my data is correct). If past history is correct, there are a lot of military votes there, which—unless Webb’s military history helps him a LOT–isn’t great for the Dems’ chance of picking up the seat. Despite my utter loathing for Allen, I have to think that right now, you have to think that Webb is going to lose. Sigh.

UPDATE:

So, it’s now 1124pm EST. In VA, Webb is behind by .21%, about 5000 votes. Not much still out there: 2.74% of precincts still to report. The only places that have not completely reported that are 60/40 one way or another, and thus able to move the final results are: Norfolk City (2/3 Democratic so far); A couple of precincts in Fairfax (58/40 Democratic; 1 precinct in Arlington (hugely Democratic); 8 precincts in massively Democratic Richmond City. I think that may mean that Webb may actually be ahead tomorrow morning. After the absentee ballots are counted, it will probably go back to Allen.

DOUBLE-REVERSE UPDATE:

It’s now midnight, and it looks like my previous prediction that this would eventually come Webb’s way looks to be coming true. With 99% of the precincts reported, Webb is behind by .07, or 1800 votes. The only precincts left that could really push the vote one way or another are now Arlington, Fairfax, and Richmond City. I think that Webb will pick up another 1000 vote margin in Richmond City, and about the same again in Arlington and Fairfax. Bottom line–this race will be as close to tied as is possible tomorrow morning. Things will get VERY ugly over the absentee ballots. Democrats need to make a decision pretty soon with how carefully they can stomach challenging the absentee ballots of what are likely to be a lot of military voters. Ugh.

Author: Steven M. Teles

Steven Teles is a Visiting Fellow at the Yale Center for the Study of American Politics. He is the author of Whose Welfare? AFDC and Elite Politics (University Press of Kansas), and co-editor of Ethnicity, Social Mobility and Public Policy (Cambridge). He is currently completing a book on the evolution of the conservative legal movement, co-editing a book on conservatism and American Political Development, and beginning a project on integrating political analysis into policy analysis. He has also written journal articles and book chapters on international free market think tanks, normative issues in policy analysis, pensions and affirmative action policy in Britain, US-China policy and federalism. He has taught at Brandeis, Boston University, Holy Cross, and Hamilton colleges, and been a research fellow at Harvard, Princeton and the University of London.

4 thoughts on “Virginia–Ugh”

  1. The absentees have already been counted — its only the provisional ballots which need to be counted (and, as of now, 12:50am, fairfax votes). It looks good for Webb.

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