Comments on: La paix des braves?

By: Kenneth Almquist

Kenneth Almquist — Wed, 23 Aug 2006 20:28:59 +0000

It looks to me like Hezbollah made some progress towards “dominating and Islamizing Lebanon.” One of the functions of a national government is to provide for the national defense. Hezbollah wins here: after the recent fighting nobody thinks that the Lebanese army is a match for Hezbollah in terms of being able to resist an Israeli attack.
Another task is to provide for domestic welfare. Hezbollah appears to be winning here as well. According to today’s New York Times, “While the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has just begun organizing committees to study the reconstruction of the country, Construction Jihad [a Hezbollah company] has all but completed surveys of southern Lebanese towns.”
A third task of the government is to manage international relations. Here Hezbollah struck out, provoking a war with Israel. What’s not clear is whether this will end up damaging Hezbollah’s reputation in Lebanon. Granted, Bush is finally paying a price for invading Iraq, but that took a while, and is largely the result of his incompetence in executing the war and his failure to devise a way to end the fighting. Hezbollah fought well, and now has a ceasefire. If you are Lebanese, it is probably more comforting to remember the war as a Lebanese victory than to remember it as a mistake.

By: CharleyCarp

CharleyCarp — Sun, 20 Aug 2006 18:48:53 +0000

It seems to me to be worthwhile to distinguish between the goals of the organization generally, and the goals of the campaign. Hezbollah wasn’t trying to obliterate Israel, or dominate Lebanon, but shooting a few missiles and kidnapping a couple of soldiers. It was, at most, engaging in petty harassment, trying to get a prisoner exchange, and maybe trying (a) to relieve pressure on hamas and/or (b) take advantage of whatever deal Egypt et al. might have brokered to end Israel’s Gaza campaign. It’s easy to argue that Hezbollah didn’t really get any of these things, but what it got is much better. Once Israel made such a strong response, Hezbollah’s goal for the campaign shifted to survival. It did so, and successfully posed to everyone in Lebanon, and beyond, as willing to stand up to the invader. Top this with the (a) more likely than not fall of the Israeli coalition and (b) influence that will flow from financing the reconstruction of Lebanon (even outside Shi’a areas), and it’s hard to see why Hezbollah’s attempt at a bunt, which because of Israeli errors has resulted in the runner standing on second base, isn’t a strong victory for Hezbollah.
Israel is now reduced to looking like the post-ceasefire aggressor, and seems to be announcing an intent to engage in terrorism (targetted assassination) itself.

By: shmuel

shmuel — Sun, 20 Aug 2006 17:57:31 +0000

Totally agree with one qualification – Hezbollah may serve as an Iranian proxy. This makes the analysis more complex and status quo less appealing. It is also not clear whether status quo ante is available to Hezbollah; a variant may be.