October 29th, 2005

In connection with the administration’s unwillingness to ask if it’s always wise to do the same thing even as the consequences get worse and worse, it might be good to reflect on the Martingale strategy of betting. This system absolutely guarantees you will win the amount of your initial bet in any game, and all you have to do is to double your bet after each time you lose. The only problem with it, of course, is that the necessary bet can quickly exceed either your resources or the house limit. This unpleasant surprise could be called a message from the reality zone.

It may be that the key ingredients that make this work are (i) publicly stating your iron determination to persist (this will intimidate the roulette wheel), and (ii) asserting that refusal to learn from events is the same as having character. As soon as I can do it with other people’s lives…money, I mean, other people’s money…I will try it and let everyone know how it comes out.

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