If you want to predict happenings in Northern Ireland, imagine the worst and add 10%.
Contrary to my tentative hopes, and despite the latest revelations about IRA thuggery and Sinn Féin complicity, the swing in the parliamentary elections was toward SF, not away from it. The other tribal party, Ian Paisley’s Democratic Unionists, did even better, virtually wiping out the less-fanatical Ulster Unionists. The combined tribalist vote was 58%, with the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party and the moderate unionist Ulster Union Party splitting 34%.
I notice that the new management at the Vatican, which was so enthusiastic about forbidding communion to American politicians who refuse to vote to criminalize abortion, seems not to have pursued any comparable vendetta against the IRA’s front organization. Does its respect for life truly stop at birth?
My previous proposal for solving the Northern Ireland problem still looks good to me.