The first actual counted votes of the 2004 election are in, and John Kerry made some gains against George Bush compared to the Gore-Bush race.
In 2000, Hart’s Location and Dixville Notch, NH, which traditionally vote at midnight and release their results immediately, went for Bush over Gore 38-15, with one stubborn fool voting for Nader. This year, the score was Bush 34, Kerry 19, with one stubborn fool — perhaps the very same one — still voting for Nader.
That’s a swing of nearly eight percent away from Bush and toward the Democrat. Using a likely voter model I just pulled out of my hat, this station can now project a Kerry landslide, with the Massachusetts liberal carrying the popular vote by 58-42 and winning everything but Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, the Dakotas,Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina for a total of about 350 EV.
That, as Mark Twain once said, is the wonderful thing about calculation: you get reap such huge returns of speculation for such a trifling investment in fact.