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Back to even?

September 7, 2004 By Mark Kleiman @markarkleiman

Rasmussen’s three-day moving average now has Kerry tied with Bush at 47.3%. Tomorrow’s number, which won’t include Saturday’s polling which showed Kerry ahead (and which Scott Rasmussen therefore thinks was probably a bad sample) might not be as good for Kerry, but the conventional wisdom that the Republicans had a successful convention and that the election is now Bush’s to lose looks harder and harder to believe.

Update:

Zogby shows some gains for Bush in the battleground states, but he still shows Kerry getting 307 EV, which means that he could win even if both Florida and Missouri, now leaning Kerry, went for Bush instead. (Correction: A reader points out that Florida now has 27 EV, which with Missouri’s 11 would produce a tie and force the election into the House.)

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