I hate to interfere with Mickey Kaus’s attempt to generate panic among Democrats at the prospect of having Kerry as the nominee, but here’s what Charlie Cook (who gets paid for being right rather than provocative) has to say:
This race has settled into a place that is not at all good for an incumbent, is remarkably stable, and one that is terrifying many Republican lawmakers, operatives and activists.
[No link available, but you can sign up (free) to get Cook’s column emailed to you every week.]
Cook’s basic point: If the horse-race is close now, that’s bad news for the incumbent, because the undecideds are going to break against him.
Update: Ted at Crooked Timber has more. Note, however, that the betting markets have the race more or less even money.