If Bush’s numbers don’t bounce back, he will not get re-elected. That is clear.
With Iraq much more likely to either remain the same or get worse than to improve significantly, and with an improving economy going largely ignored (indeed, the president’s approval rating on the economy has gone down, not up), a souring of the electorate is taking place that must be reversed before Bush can firm up his approval numbers.
The most striking thing I see in the poll’s is the rising number of people who report unfavorable impressions of Bush personally. That’s a number less volatile than job performance. Right now, CBS has Bush at 36 favorable, 47 unfavorable. Kerry’s at 32-32 in the same poll.
Note to Mickey Kaus: Cook reports “euphoria” among Democrats, “anxiety, though not quite panic,” among Republicans.