January 7th, 2004

Latest ARG tracking numbers:

Dean 36, down 1 from yesterday

Clark 16, up 2

Kerry 13, down 1

Lieberman 7, even

A two-point jump in a three-day moving average means that the most recent day must have been a very good one for Clark. That could, of course, be noise: there’s a big error band around the estimate from a daily sample of 150. But it could also indicate real movement.

If Clark were to establish a firm hold on second place, that might make him a magnet for the 16% “undecided” and for some of the 31% now going to Kerry, Leiberman, and the also-rans.

Maybe skipping Iowa wasn’t such a bad move after all?

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