January 30th, 2004

Rasmussen national tracking

Kerry 36% (+2)

Dean 17% (even)

Edwards 16% (+2)

Clark 9% (-3)

Lieberman 7% (-1)

Sharpton 3% (-1)

Kucinich 0%

Not Sure 12% (+1)

Rasmussen November tracking:

Bush 44%

Kerry 45%

Other 6%

Not Sure 6%

Bush 42%

Democrat (generic) 49%

Other 3%

Not Sure 6%

Zogby tracking (thanks to Daily Kos):

South Carolina

1/27-29

Edwards 25

Kerry 24

Dean 9

Clark 8

Sharpton 5

Lieberman 5

Missouri

1/27-29

Kerry 45

Edwards 11

Dean 9

Lieberman 4

Clark 3

Arizona

1/27-29

Kerry 38

Clark 17

Dean 12

Edwards 6

Lieberman 6

Oklahoma

1/27-29

Clark 27

Kerry 19

Edwards 17

Dean 9

North Dakota (Minnensota State University)

1/26-28

Kerry 31

Clark 15

Edwards 6

Dean 5

Iowa electronic markets winner-take-all nomination contract:

Kerry 74.5-75.5 (bid up 6.2)

Edwards 10.6-13.0 (bid down 5.1)

Dean 3.8-5.9 (down 5.5)

Clark 4.6-5.4 (even)

Lieberman 0.3-0.4 (even)

Clinton 1.5-1.9 (up 0.4)

Tradesports nomination market

Kerry 79.3-80.7 (bid up 10.2)

Edwards 12.5-13.4 (bid down 2.7)

Dean 4-5.8 (bid down 7)

Field (includes Clark) 3.1-4.1 (up 0.1)

Clinton 1.3-1.7 (up 0.2)

Lieberman 1.2-1.5 (up 0.8)

Tradesports Bush re-election

71-71.5 (even)

From the viewpoint of a Clark fan, there isn’t too much to cheer about in these numbers. But if — a big if, obviously — Kerry were to inch out Edwards in South Carolina and hold on everywhere else he’s now ahead, and if Clark actually wins Oklahoma, where he seems to be ahead, and finishes respectably elsewhere, Clark might wind up in a two-way race against Kerry, or a three-way race against Kerry and Dean. Neither of those looks from here like a hopeless endeavor.

Comments are closed.