Newsweek and Zogby have almost identical numbers (on slightly different questions) about re-electing Bush: Newsweek has 44-49 against, while Zogby is at 45-48. The combined sample size is nearly 2000.[*] Like Schwarzenegger, Bush has managed to generate an aura of invincibility which is itself a significant campaign advantage. But between the poll numbers and the Iowa Elections Market (which has Bush behind either Hillary (!) or Player to Be Named Later, and even with everyone else) [*], I’m not sure how long that aura can last.
Bush’s job approval is still in positive territory, though it’s been trending down. If I had to guess, I’d guess that he’s now pretty much down to his hard core. I think the most likely outcome is that we’ll be up late on Election Night.