DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE VOTERS ARE THINKING?
Polling results on the generic Congressional ballot question seem to flop back and forth in no pattern I can detect.The latest news seems to be good for the Democrats, at a moment I would have thought would favor the Republicans. Newsweek has them up by 7 last week, compared to down 2 three weeks ago; ABC/Washington Post up 4 a week ago, versus down 8 three weeks earlier; Fox up 3 at the end of September versus down 3 at the end of August. In the meantime, the Iowa markets, which seemed unreasonably optimistic about Democratic chances a month ago, now seem unreasonably pessimistic, giving the Republicans a 45% chance to take the Senate and the Democrats only a 25% chance to take the House.
I wonder whether all this war stuff might be less popular than it seems. Bush’s personal approval has gotten a several-point bounce out of it, as have his re-elect numbers, but there doesn’t seem to be much sentiment for giving him a Congress he can work with.