Right now, he’s up by just under 24,000 votes, or 1.8%, with only 4.5% left to count. About 13% of Miami-Dade is still out; Reno was ahead by 63,000 in the remainder of Miami-Dade, so a straight-line projection has her picking up 63,000 (13/87) = 9500 there. Palm Beach should give her another 4000 or so net, Broward another 1000. No reason to think she’ll have much of an edge among the absentees or provisional votes. So it looks like McBride, and by enough of a margin to avoid an automatic recount, unless those missing precincts in Miami went for Reno even more lopsidedly than the rest of the county.
UPDATE: Herald calls it for McBride. Bride’s lead down to 11,000, but with only 1% left to count. Lots of horror stories, including a precinct where votes were counted for 900% of those registered and another where only one vote was cast. Reno’s people making ugly noises.
Oh, and the anti-gay-rights initiative went down, though not by very much. Apparently much of the Cuban leadership was persuaded that this was a human rights issue. Of course the Castro regime has a pretty horrible record of persecuting gays.